A Mathematical Exploration of the Role of Feral Pigs in the Transmission of Japanese Encephalitis Virus

Japanese encephalitis virus is a growing problem within Australia, as evidenced by the 2022 outbreak which killed six people. We will investigate the role of feral pigs and likely circumstances when endemic transmission of Japanese encephalitis virus might be maintained within Australia through a compartmental transmission model. This model will include both the established pig-to-mosquito-to-pig transmission cycle, and the emerging evidence of direct pig-to-pig transmission. Although we are focussed on North Queensland, ongoing transmission in northern Australia has strong implications for incursions into southern regions where there are both more domestic piggeries and denser human populations, increasing risks to both agriculture and human health.

Emma Naumann

James Cook University

Emma Naumann is a 3rd-year Bachelor of Advanced Science student majoring in
Mathematics and Physics, at James Cook University in Townsville. She enjoys the field of
applied mathematics, in particular, using maths to model real-world problems which affect
people. She aims to pursue further studies, firstly through her honours next year, and then a
PhD. Her AMSI Summer Research Scholarship project uses systems of ordinary differential
equations to investigate the role of feral pigs in the transmission of Japanese Encephalitis
virus in North Queensland.
Emma is the founding president and physics representative of the JCU Physical Sciences
Society, which aims to promote the physical sciences at JCU. She is passionate about
spreading appreciation for both mathematics and physics, so has worked as a Peer
Assisted Study Session (PASS) Leader for multiple undergraduate mathematics and
physics subjects, and as a College of Science and Engineering student representative.

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